The Gurdaspur provocation will spur the Modi government to focus on
terror in talks with Islamabad and end flip-flops that defined its
Pakistan policy over the past yearThe excitement from Ufa had barely settled in Delhi when a
terrorist attack in Gurdaspur provoked a familiar rush of angst and
adrenalin. After nearly a decade the international boundary in Punjab
had been breached, raking up dreaded memories of the insurgency of the
Eighties. With the Line of Control up north in Jammu & Kashmir also
tense, intelligence officials wondered if India was in for another round
of prolonged insecurity on its western borders.
The big
question was if the thaw in Ufa would survive the most recent onslaught
of terror. A mere cup of tea barely a year ago between Pakistani high
commissioner Abdul Basit and Hurriyat leader Shabir Shah had been enough
to put a scowl on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's face. Just like that, India had cancelled impending talks between the foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan.
The
terse message to the Pakistanis: Either you are with us or against us.
In the new Narendra Modi dispensation, India would not tolerate any
fuzzy feelings of warmth between old friends. The Hurriyat leaders may
be Indian citizens but they were breaking biscuits with the Pakistanis. A
mere tea-party had become a symbol of insurrection.
Police fight militants during the encounter in Dinanagar, Gurdaspur, on July 27.
So
imagine the surprise when government officials declared, in the wake of
the Gurdaspur blasts, that the show would go on. India would continue
its newly opened dialogue with the Pakistanis. The two national security
advisors, Ajit Doval and Sartaj Aziz, would meet some time in August,
soon after Modi hoists the tricolour for the second time from the
historic ramparts of the Red Fort.The mind
boggles at the alacrity with which the Prime Minister has decided to
throw out all his old templates. Pakistan was no longer the enemy for a
variety of reasons-and among the most important is the fact that Modi
will soon be embarking on his second visit to the US, to appear before
the UN General Assembly in New York and perhaps even make a side trip to
Washington D.C. to meet President Barack Obama.
Certainly
Modi wants to show the world, at the UN and elsewhere that India, with
its size, economy and willingness to break with old shibboleths, is the
true leader of South Asia. But since leadership requires the ability to
bite both lip and the proverbial bullet, another template was in order
to deal with Pakistan.
And so disregarding pressure from
an RSS increasingly concerned that he was making peace with the Islamic
Republic, the Prime Minister has decided to change the game. Talks with
Pakistan will continue, but only on a one-point agenda: terrorism.
The
joint statement at Ufa, government sources say, is already heavily
loaded in favour of a discussion on the subject and all its
manifestations. At Ufa, Pakistan even promised to do what it could to
deliver voice samples of the Mumbai attack accused, such as Zaki-ur
Rehman Lakhvi, to India.
"The talks between the two NSAs
will be about terrorism, terrorism and more terrorism," government
sources said, adding, "the composite dialogue as we know it, when both
sides talked on all issues, is dead."
The sources said
that the Gurdaspur attack was a deliberate attempt on the part of the
Pakistani security establishment to roil the waters and so anger the
Indian government that it had no option but to cancel the dialogue.
"But
we will do no such thing. We will do exactly the opposite. It is clear
that someone in Pakistan, by sending three terrorists into Gurdaspur,
don't want the talks to continue. They are hoping India will cancel the
talks so they can tell the world, See, we told you so," the sources
said.
In fact, across the corridors of power in North
Block and South Block and elsewhere, politicians and bureaucrats are
girding up their loins to deal with worse-case scenarios. The uneasy
feeling that more Gurdaspurlike attacks, in the wake of the Yakub Memon
hanging as well as in the run up to the Aziz-Doval meet could take
place, hangs around the place.
But Modi is determined to
deal with the oncoming slings and arrows of misfortune with renewed
energy. Travelling the world over the last year and hearing the world
speak to you in very different ways from the time you were chief
minister has certainly helped to focus the Prime Minister's mind.
Government
sources point out that the three men who were inserted into Indian
territory carrying GPS preset to the Dinanagar police station in
Gurdaspur district, had to have been mentored, guided and perhaps even
trained by the all-powerful Pakistani security establishment. These men
were also reportedly carrying night vision devices with US military
markings, only used in counterterrorism operations, and which may have
been given to the Pakistani military for its own use.
The
violation of the Punjab border is significant because unlike the Line
of Control in Jammu & Kashmir, this is an agreed-upon border. Home
Minister Rajnath Singh
told the Rajya Sabha on July 30 that preliminary evidence suggests the
attackers might have infiltrated taking advantage of heavy rains and
swollen streams along the India-Pakistan border.
The
sources were unwilling to say whether these men are Lashkar-e-Taiba
cadres or elements within the jihadi groups gone rogue. But they believe
the Pakistani security establishment was using them, perhaps "to test
the waters in India's Punjab" to possibly reignite a "Khalistani
movement of sorts".
It is believed that several Sikh
jathas or groups that regularly travel to Sikh shrines inside Pakistan
have been addressed by "Khalistani leaders", while the capitals of
Western Europe as well as the US and Canada in which large Sikh
populations reside are being "sounded out" to perhaps join a potential
movement in case the need arises.
On both sides of the
border it is widely believed that the main reason for the growing
ferment in Punjab is political discontent, and that the state is ripe
for change. The ruling Shiromani Akali Dal and its ally, the BJP, don't
agree on a number of issues, although they still remain a part of the
Union government. However, the Congress party in the Opposition remains
unable to step into the political vacuum because it is itself divided
and the Aam Aadmi Party, a growing third force, isn't ready yet to jump
into the fray.
Enter the Pakistan based terrorist who is
finding it increasingly difficult to infiltrate into Jammu and Kashmir,
not only because the Line of Control is fenced or that the large numbers
of security forces have successfully kept infiltration down, but also
because the people of the Kashmir valley have made it clear that
accession to Pakistan is a low priority.
That is why,
says Lt Gen (retd) Syed Ata Hasnain, a former commander of the 15 Corps
based in Srinagar, these cross-border terrorists are being forced to
move south. With the 15 Corps "tightening" security in the Valley and
the 16 Corps, deployed south of the Pir Panjal, also following suit, it
has become "very difficult" to infiltrate both men and material into
Kashmir, Lt Gen Hasnain said.
Turns out that the first
big district south of the Pir Panjal is Gurdaspur. Once the summer home
of the Lion of Punjab, Maharaja Ranjit Singh, Dinanagar became the
choice target of attack of the three Pakistan-based terrorists. Within
kissing distance is the Ravi river, and on the other side is the
Shakargarh tehsil, part of Gurdaspur before 1947 and now integrated with
Pakistan's Sialkot district.
Sources also point out the
pattern in the up-and-down peace dialogue with Pakistan over the years,
how peace moves are often preceded or succeeded by terror attacks, so as
to derail them. The classic example is, of course, the Lahore bus ride
in February 1999 followed by the Kargil conflict that summer. The failed
Agra summit of July 2001 was succeeded by an attack against the
legislative assembly in Srinagar in October and the parliament in Delhi
in December 2001. As a result India cancelled flights and stopped giving
visas, but Pakistani terrorists were back in Kaluchak, Jammu, in May
2002, killing civilians and army personnel and nearly sending both
nations to war.
More recently, within three weeks of
Nawaz Sharif attending Modi's swearing-in on May 26 last year, the
Pakistani army violated the ceasefire 19 times. And two weeks after
Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar visited Pakistan on March 3 to break the
ice, terrorists from Pakistan mounted strikes in Samba and Kathua.
Analysts say that China played a key role in getting its "all-weather
partner" Pakistan to come to the Ufa talks. Over the last year
Pakistan's international influence has grown by leaps and bounds, both
with the US and China, because it has been able to get the various
Taliban factions to talk to the Afghan government in Murree, a hill
station not far from Islamabad. The second round of these Afghan talks
is slated for July 31.
Neither side is said to have
expected much from the handshake in Ufa. But surprisingly, sources from
both sides say, the hour-long Modi-Sharif conversation went well. Both
sides had expected acrimony-in fact, they had prepared for worst-case
scenarios-but instead, they got agreement on all key issues.
In
the wake of the Gurdaspur incident, producing a joint statement
certainly seems the easy part of the high-stakes India-Pakistan
engagement. Implementing any fancy communiqué on the ground is the
torturous part.