Friday, June 26, 2015

Surviving LAMO Storm after Namo Victory....

The axe forgets, but the tree remembers.
This African proverb best explains the current plight of Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje, who is facing the toughest battle of her political life. One more push and the Dholpur Maharani could be dethroned.
Reports suggest the BJP leadership has refused to defend Raje and her son Dushyant, who is being called the party’s Robert Vadra. The BJP may in fact probe some of the charges against the ‘Maa-Beta’ sarkar and initiate action if she is found guilty.
Unlike Sushma Swaraj, who was defended by Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley and the RSS, nobody in the BJP is crying for Raje. “As regards with the Rajasthan issue is concerned, the details have to be taken into account. I think Vasundhara ji has spoken slightly yesterday (Tuesday), surely she will revert,” BJP leader Ravishankar Prasad said.
So, Raje is on her own.
The signs are ominous. On Wednesday, as TV channels screamed “off with the Queen’s head’ and called her a coward for running away from questions, Raje desperately tried to meet party chief Amit Shah. But Shah didn’t seem keen to meet her in a hurry.
Reuters
Reuters
The BJP’s problem is that it has realised Raje’s case is indefensible. The financial transactions between her son, Jhalawar MP Dushyant Singh, and Modi are almost similar to the deals between Vadra and DLF. The paper trail shows that he got nearly Rs 11 crore for a company that exists just on paper through the Mauritius route. This is a classic case of round-tripping of money and the paper trail points to slush funds being laundered. The BJP will look stupid defending an encore of Vadragate.
The case against Raje is scandalous. Modi has confessed that Raje supported his application for immigration in Britain and then tried to keep it a secret from the Indian authorities. If the allegation of helping a fugitive is proven, it could amount to treachery, even treason. If the case against Raje is proven, the BJP’s claim of being a party of nationalists would turn into a joke.
Raje’s defence depends on just one argument: that she didn’t sign the document pledging support to Modi’s immigration plea. But her silence on the issue, her inability to face the media, to fight her battle like Swaraj did, suggests Raje is at the mercy of her critics and the high command.
If Raje stands isolated today, much of it is her own fault. She has had a history of blackmailing the party leadership, throwing fits and bending in the direction of the wind. She has no permanent friends but life-long enemies.
In the summer of 2013, when Raje began her campaign from Charbhuja, she didn’t invite Narendra Modi. When Rajnath Singh, who was the BJP president then, began to speak, hundreds of workers started shouting ‘Modi, Modi’ to remind Raje of her folly. Over the next few weeks, Raje corrected her course and began leaning towards the Narendra Modi camp.
But, it is unlikely, the PM would have forgotten the slur.
Before that, she had threatened to quit if her demand for being made the state BJP president wasn’t accepted. To force the party’s hand, many legislators in the Raje camp submitted their resignation to her; some of them even suggested that they were ready to float a new party.
And, soon after the NDA won the election, Raje reportedly demanded that her son be made a minister in the Modi government. In the ensuing fight, Rajasthan — a state with 25 MPs— was completely overlooked and was allotted just one seat in the Cabinet (rape accused Nihalchand Meghwal).
Back then, the BJP didn’t have too many options. Elections were on the horizon; Raje was the party’s only mass leader and the Centre was weak. The internal dynamics within the BJP have changed dramatically since then. To use a famous Dilbert line, Raje, who was the bird then, is now the statue. As the muck gets thrown at her, her rivals would see this as an opportunity to teach her a lesson.
Many powerful forces are working against Raje. It can’t be just a coincidence that Lalit Modi himself revealed that she secretly tried to help him and then released ‘incriminating’ documents against her. Something must have gone horribly wrong between Modi and Raje over the past two years.
Raje may have forgotten some of the things she did in the past, but her rivals still remember them. This looks eerily similar to Badlapur.